Economists Predict: Recession Coming

Recession Coming

The local economy is booming, and nationally we are experiencing the second-longest bull market in history. That’s great news, but it can’t last forever. The economy runs in cycles and we’re long overdue for our overheated market to cool down a bit. According to a survey of top economists by Zillow, almost half of experts said they expect the next recession to begin some time in 2020.

Experts Say Recession Could Hit by Early 2020

Recession Prediction Chart

A Recession Means a Slow-Down, Not a Crisis

A recession means the economy has slowed down. It does not mean we are experiencing another housing crisis. The housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, that crash was primarily due to faulty lending practices that encouraged people to purchase homes they could not afford. Current lending practices make that unlikely to occur today.

Housing Won’t Be the Problem 

According to economists, monetary and trade policy are the most likely triggers for the next recession, not housing.

“If a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.”  – Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American

The last recession that was caused by the housing crash was an anomaly. During the previous five recessions home values actually appreciated. If the US experiences a recession you can expect a slow-down of home price increases, not a housing crisis.

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, it’s important to have the most current information about the market. Our skilled Windermere Brokers can provide you with statistics and economic forecasts, as well as answers to any questions you may have.

Commute vs. Home Price Trade-Off: How Far Are You Willing To Drive?

Would you be willing to swap a longer commute time for a lower monthly mortgage payment? With prices of homes near city centers skyrocketing, many buyers are rethinking their priorities and choosing to “keep driving until they can afford it.”

Housing Search Trade-Off: Price vs. Commute Time

We examined active listing on the Northwest Multiple Listing Service and their drive-time proximity to downtown Seattle. Looking at homes within a 30-minute radius from downtown, the median home price was $1,612,500. Homes located within a 31 to 60-minute commute from downtown had a median price of $890,000–that’s 45 percent less. This means if you are willing to commute over an hour, the price of the average home in the area would be $1 million less than if you lived close to the city.

Search for Homes by Commute Time on Windermere.com

The Drive Time Search function on Windermere.com and our Windermere brokers’ websites allows you to customize the search criteria with your work address, time of day that you commute, and maximum amount of time you want to spend driving to and from work. The results will exclusively show homes for sale within your preferred drive time. 
Search By Drive Time
Are you ready to look for a home?
One of our qualified Windermere brokers can help you choose the right area, narrow down your criteria, and create a strategy for getting you the home you want at a price you can afford.

 

Local Market Update – July 2018

The local real estate market looks like it might finally be showing signs of softening, with inventory up and sales down. More sellers have opted to put their homes on the market. Inventory was up 47 percent in King County and price increases were in the single digits. Despite the increase in inventory and slowdown in sales, it’s still a solid seller’s market. Over half the properties purchased in June sold for more than list price.

Eastside

>>>Click image to view full report.

A booming economy offered little price relief for buyers looking on the Eastside. In a recent study of economic strength by state, Washington ranked number one in the country. An additional report targeting cities ranks the Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma market as the nation’s fourth strongest economy.  The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside rose 10 percent over a year ago to $977,759 setting another record. There is some good news for buyers. Inventory rose to its highest level in three years, with the number of homes for sale increasing 46 percent from the same time last year.

King County

>>>Click image to view full report.

The number of homes on the market in King County soared 47 percent from a year ago, the biggest increase since the housing bubble burst. Despite the increase, there is just over one month of available inventory, far short of the four to six months that is considered a balanced market.  The median price of a single-family home increased 9 percent over last June to $715,000. That’s down 2 percent from the $726,275 median in May. Home prices haven’t dropped from May to June in King County since the last recession.

Seattle

>>>Click image to view full report.

Seattle trails only Bay Area cities when it comes to greatest profits for home sellers.  That may help explain the surge in inventory in June. For example, the number of homes for sale in the popular Ballard/Green Lake area doubled from a year ago. Even though buyers are finally getting more choices, demand still exceeds supply. Homes sell faster in Seattle than in any other U.S. real estate market.  That demand propelled the median price of a single-family home to $812,500; up 8 percent over last June and down from the record $830,000 set in May.

Snohomish County

>>>Click image to view full report.

The largest jump in home prices in the region came in Snohomish County. While higher-priced markets in King County are seeing increases slowing slightly, the median price of a single-family home here jumped 14 percent to $511,500, a new high for the county.  Buyers willing to “keep driving until they can afford it” are finding Snohomish County an appealing destination.

Building Your Home’s Amenities Into Experiences

The value of a home is more than what it can be bought and sold for – it also lies in how it makes you feel. Security and comfort are vital components, as well as convenience; however, what many buyers are looking for in a home in 2018 are amenities that deliver a luxury experience. With that in mind, we decided to take a look at a few ways a home can add an “experience” that sets itself apart.

Indoor-Outdoor Pools

18884 SE 42nd Street Issaquah, WA 98027
MLS #1284016 | Presented By Karl Lindor & John Kritsonis
  • In much of the country, an outdoor swimming pool isn’t that uncommon. The simple luxury of a private space for recreation can be the centerpiece of a home’s charm.
  • Expanding that possibility is the indoor-outdoor pool, which segments a pool into a covered, indoor region, as well as an outdoor area.
  • Anyone who loves spending time in the water but lives in too cool a climate to use a pool year-round can enjoy an indoor oasis in the winter that flows seamlessly into an outdoor space in the warmer months.

Creative Wine Cellars

Credit: Spiral Cellars / SpiralCellars.com
  • Who among us wouldn’t love a wine cellar? It’s an opportunity for self-expression that echoes back upon centuries of vintage creativity.
  • Not every home has the space to build a traditional wine cellar, but a bit of creativity can open the door to other possibilities.
  • The underground, spiral cellar, as pictured above, is one way to add a stylish centerpiece to your home that will undoubtedly create a unique experience for your guests.

Outdoor Home Theater

Outdoor Movies
Credit: Pinterest / Realtor.com
  • The indoor home theater is far from passé but building upon that experience with an outdoor theater can take your movie nights to the next level.
  • The key to this design is versatility. If you live in a sun-kissed state you can construct a lightly covered space for viewings. An artful canopy or raised trellis can be the enclosure.
  • Wetter or dustier climates pose a greater challenge, but a retractable awning is a multi-functional feature that can transform your yard into a private cinema no matter the weather.

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.